Ask Rotoman Friday Edition

Plus a Word from our Sponsor

Mar 13, 2026

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NEWS I MISSED

Starling Marte, signs with Royals: He’s not fallen off talentwise (apart from his speed) as he ages, but the last three years his durability has become a problem. He could be a useful piece in KC but with limited plate appearances only a small possible help in AL only leagues.

Romy Gonzalez, on the 60 Day IL: We knew about his sore shoulder but we now know it needs a debridement, which I knew when she used to rock ‘n’ roll, and won’t be back until June. This is of interest because it could open a path to a job on the Red Sox for last year’s bust, Kristian Campbell, though Campbell’s defensive issues in the infield last year might mean either Nate Eaton or Andruw Monasterio has the small glove up.

Jalen Beeks, signs with Rangers: He’s been decent the last two years as a lefty out of the pen. Not a draft target but may be one of those relievers you shuffle in and out as needed during the season.

ASK ROTOMAN

Pete:

Cutdown to eleven is this coming Sunday. I have to drop two of the following: Otto Lopez, Brandon Lowe, or Noelvi Marte. We use HRs, Runs, RBIs, SBs and OBP. Thanks for your help.

“Two Into Three Won’t Go”

Dear 2i3WG:

These guys are similarly valued, which makes this a tough one.

Otto Lopez: My projection $21, my Bid Price $12, CBS $11, LABR $16
Brandon Lowe: My projection $19, my Bid Price $16, CBS $16, LABR $15
Noelvi Marte: My projection $20, my Bid Price $15, CBS $21, LABR $16

But each of these lines obscures pertinent points.

Lopez is a late-blooming defensive plus who had a breakout offensively last year by attacking the ball aggressively. He has the lowest cost because his profile is balanced by a little power and a little speed, not a lot, but his batting average skills are more like a .260 hitter than a .246 one.

Lowe is coveted because he’s got good power, but he ranks down here in this bunch because he has a history of injuries. Last year he played 134 games, but he missed significantly more time in the three years before that.

Marte comes with some issues. His defense did not work at third base so he’s now playing right field, where he’s a work in progress. The Reds are saying he’s going to have to get better out there to play regularly. In his favor he’s only 25 years old this year, but he’s missed significant time the last three years with a PEDS suspension and injuries.

None of these guys will be an OBP help, and Marte is the worst in that category.

For guaranteed playing time I’d pick Lopez. For homer upside I’d pick Lowe. For overall potential I might pick Marte, but I think I won’t. The defensive adjustments and the Reds crowded roster are discombobulating. A reason to keep him is because he should have the highest price, but he also probably has the biggest bust potential.

Deciding between Lopez and Lowe is a matter of team building. Lowe also comes with bust potential, but he might also hit a lot of homers. If that’s a better profile for the team you have pick him. If balance and safety matter more Lopez might work out better.

Indecisively,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN 2

Hey Peter,

Two questions going into my 5x5 AL only keeper league. It’s our 36th year !
(You’d think I would know all the answers) LOL.

We keep 10, I’m worried the Sox will trade Jarren Duran… I have him at $26, keep or let him go?
We changed to SV/Holds 3 years ago. I would love to know your pitching make-up strategy. 4 SP, 1 bonafide closer, and 4 hold guys? Or 5 SP, 2 bonafide closers, and 2 hold guys?

Thanks for reading,
”AL Keeper Vet”

Hey ALKV:

Out of league trades are a powerful subject. In the American Dream League we spent 20 years, maybe more, arguing about whether to carry over the stats of players traded to the NL in season. Half of us liked the sudden disaster that comes from losing a top player to chance, at least when it happens to others, and argued that valuing players based on their trade risk was a skill.

The other half pointed out that all the potential trade information available overstates the number of trades of consequential players to the other league, but it makes us make panicky moves that do a disservice to ourselves and the other owners in the league fighting for the pennant. If bad information leads to bad information what can we do to minimize the bad information?

Some years back we decided to let the stats carry over and I don’t think anyone has complained about it. You roster a player it makes sense you should be able to count on him as long as he’s playing. There are enough injuries and other reasons players don’t play to distract us without putting us through the grinder of interleague trade talk.

But so far, at least, your league disagrees.

Duran at $26 is at par. Which makes him a bit of a bargain based on how much draft inflation your league has. Let’s say it’s 20 percent, so his inflated price would be about $31. How would your other league mates discount him in the auction?

For this you have to run some scenarios:

If he was traded at the:

End of April: He’d earn $5. With a 50/50 chance of staying in the AL, his future value in your league would be $12. So, total value $17.
End of May: He’d earn $10. With a 50/50 chance of staying in the AL, his future value in your league would be $10. So, total value $20.
End of June: He’d earn $15. With a 50/50 chance of staying in the AL, his future value would be $7. So, total value $22.
End of July: He’d earn $20. With a 50/50 chance of staying in the AL, his future value would be $5. So, total value $25.
If he isn’t traded or if he’s traded in the AL he’s worth $31 and you can have him for $26.

The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey said in a Q+A in January that she thought the chances of Duran being traded before opening day were 50/50. That makes his total value about $15, and is a good reason not to keep him, especially if you have someone just as good. Though it also might be better to go into the auction with a little extra cash.

And I wonder if the Red Sox are best served by dealing Duran now. Won’t their leverage and needs be clearer at the trade deadline? I suspect if he’s traded that will be the time.

As for pitching staff configurations, I’m in favor of one ace and then try to find a bargain or two or three among starting pitchers, but in SOLDS leagues, counting Saves and Holds equally, the most important thing is not to pay top dollar for closers. Pay for reliever strikeouts in saves and holds roles. These guys are cheaper than closers in regular leagues and can have as much bang for the buck.

They also tend to go for more than they do in saves leagues, but you should also keep in mind that closing and setting up can be very fluid and there will be opportunities to pick up guys earning holds all season long.

In SOLDS leagues there is much less reason to chase because a winning hand is more likely to fall to you.

Reticently,
Rotoman

NOW A WORD FROM OUR SPONSOR

In January I got an email from a publicist who asked if I wanted to do something (what?) with the Irish whiskey, Tulamore D.E.W. I ignored her because I write a newsletter. Why would she think I’d be able to help to her and her brand? But she followed up. I said to her that I liked whiskey and I knew and liked Tulamore D.E.W. because my father-in-law had turned us onto it after he visited the distillery on a trip to Ireland. I asked her why she’d want me to write about it? She said St. Patrick’s Day was coming and they hoped to get out the word to the fantasy baseball world.

Paul reading from The Guide. Photo by Rotoman. CC4.

Marissa, the publicist, said she would send me a sample to write about while I watched a game. Cool, free whiskey, I thought. And I pitched her on how good it would be for Tulamore D.E.W. to tie-in with Tout Wars, where our goal is to reduce the dues the Touts pay to play in the league (which pays for the Swats, Auctioneers, the website, and the party). That has not moved forward yet, but a week or two ago I got a box delivered with a bottle of whiskey, a beer glass, and funny plastic side car.

It is with this setup I’m watching tonight’s Braves at Pirates spring training game.

That’s Bubba Chandler pitching to Sandy Leon in the third inning.

What happened shortly after that, while I was typing the above, is that Jair Camargo took a terrible hanging offspeed pitch from Bubba Chandler and smacked it on a line into the left field bar area. I hope they didn’t crack the Tulamore D.E.W. Oops.

[Note: This is what I wrote but this isn’t what happened: What happened a little while after that is Chandler threw a change up to Jorge Mateo on the outside bottom corner that darted to the right and away from the lefty Mateo like a screwball. It was an astounding pitch and if he can hit that place with the change/screwgie consistently, after throwing 99 mph strikes all over the zone, he’s going to be everything the Pirates hoped for.

I think he was trying to run the same pitch in to Camargo, but it didn’t dart.

Savant says Mateo struck out on a 99.3 mph fastball that isn’t close to where I thought it was and didn’t dart. The announcers called it, No. 4, a change up FWIW.

Savant says Camargo’s homer came off an 89 mph slider, which I say had no break. Keep an eye out for a tricky Chander 99.3 mph change this year.]

[Editor’s Note: I was bothered by this discrepancy, I didn’t think Savant could be that wrong, and so I went back and watched the top of the 4th inning again. Savant was right about Mateo. He swung through an awesome heater. The pitch I saw was a swinging strike by Dominic Smith on a 93 mph change up with incredible tailing action that put him behind 0-2.]

Now the Pirates pitching coach is on the show and is talking about how Chandler may have control issues, as he has in the past, but he’s not doomed to that. And about how the members of the Pirates staff are competitive with each other and are helping each other all get better.

He emphasized that Mitch Keller, the veteran, is inspired by the youngsters’ talent and is sharing his wisdom with them. And Skenes is their leader they will follow into battle, challenged and better with him than without him. If the Pirates really have a chance to compete this year it’s because that staff could dominate in the major leagues and fantasy leagues.

So, maybe it’s time to say something about the whiskey and the brew.

If you’re not a drinker and you got this far, feel free to bail, though there is a little bit more about pitching at the very end. And know that when I told my brother and my father-in-law about this deal they both said, “How much are they paying you?” Nada. I’m in it hoping to convince Tulamore D.E.W to sponsor Tout Wars.

My brew tonight is the Other Half Green City, an IPA brewed down the hill from my house in Brooklyn, a far cry from Guinness, which should probably be your choice for pairing on St. Patrick’s day.

But there is not a conflict here. Green City is a hazy style IPA with really well balanced citrus notes and a spine of resinous hops smoothed in a bath of oats, that makes it all very drinkable, I think, even if you don’t like IPAs.

Tulamore D.E.W. leads with a warm caramel smoothness followed by some fruity depths, like apple and a hint of vanilla, and follows with a warm finish in which I get a hint of plum. It’s not sweet, it drinks easy, and I’m not spitting so I’m going to have to stop tasting. I think it’s very drinkable if you like whiskey. And a whiskey to try if you find whiskies harsh. Oh, and it’s relatively inexpensive.

I’m sorry to admit I made an AI picture:

I wonder what Shaun Clancy would think about all this. His bar, Foleys, on West 33rd St., was up until the pandemic an Irish bar with baseball attitude (and a lot of signed balls and memorabilia), named after the Irish American Baseball Hall of Fame writer Red Foley. It was the unofficial home of Tout Wars, too.

Back on the baseball tip, I should mention that Grant Holmes has shut out and no hit the Pirates for five innings while striking out nine over five innings. Holmes has historically walked a few too many and allowed too many homers, which has been a problem, but he’s in the Braves rotation for the time being and is a reminder that even borderline guys can succeed at least for a little while. Especially during spring training.

BUYING THE GUIDE

If you’d like to buy the PDF version from an online store, rather than through my Stripe link, visit Gumroad!

I’m hoping Gumroad gets me in front of new customers during this peak fantasy baseball time, but I make more money if you buy the PDF through my Stripe link. At both Gumroad and my Stripe page the PDF costs $12.

And, of course, if you buy the so-called annual subscription, which costs $40, I’ll send you the PDF for “free,” and you also get access to the newsletters from December, January, and February, which have a lot of fantasy baseball info in them.

You can also buy the softcover book and Kindle version at Amazon, for $19.11 and $9.99 respectively.

HOUSEKEEPING

On Monday we’ll take a look at the pitchers who went cheaply or not at all in the three expert league drafts. I hope to have some of them on my Tout NL team, drafting Sunday.

Have questions? Ask Rotoman Anything:

If you buy the so-called annual subscription I will at some point notice and email you the PDF of the Guide. Feel free to email me at askrotoman@gmail.com and let me know you signed up for the $40 plan. I’ll send the pdf as soon as I see the email.

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