And They're Off

Like Sheep to DeLauter

ROOKIEMANIA

I read in the Athletic this morning that rookies are hitting .309, while all other hitters are batting .226. Rookies have a 1.008 OPS! They’re slugging better than .600 (.622 to be precise). The youth are crushing it!

We know how this goes. In the early going hitters often have an edge on pitchers, who may not have a clear idea of the hitter’s weaknesses. Tyler Kepner, in the Athletic article, ledes with the story of Rubén Amaro Jr.:

A generation ago, as a rookie with his hometown Philadelphia Phillies, Rubén Amaro Jr. doubled twice and homered in his first start of the season. After a week he was hitting .304 with three home runs — and for the rest of April, he was 2 for 42.

“I was insane for about a minute, and people thought I was going to be good,” Amaro said on Monday, laughing over the phone from Philadelphia. “Then reality struck – ‘Mom, they started throwing me breaking balls!’ — and that was it.”

We don’t know how this is going to go. Chase DeLauter, Kevin McGonigle, JJ Wetherholt, and others are real talents as hitters. They are not Rubén Amaro Jr. But they’re not going to keep this up, obviously.

In the meantime, enjoy ‘em if you’ve got ‘em.

CHANGES

Colt Emerson, signs giant and long contract with the Mariners: The press is not acting as if this is a precursor to promotion to the big club, but I’ll be shocked if he’s not up in the next seven days.

Kazuma Okamoto, starts hot: He’s on a four-game hitting streak with homers the last two games. He’s somewhat buried in the lineup so far, but if he keeps hitting like this he’ll move up and get chances for more productivity.

Lance McCullers Jr, an excellent start: He went seven innings for the first time since 2022, which isn’t surprising because he’s been so fragile. He’s not throwing his incredible curve quite so often and last night looked to a cutter a lot more than he has in the past, while throwing a lot fewer sliders. His injury history is so lengthy I was skeptical in the preseason, but over this past weekend I read a piece about him in which he claimed he was finally healthy. So, I picked him in the reserve rounds in my Sunday AL-only auction. I’m excited, but counting ‘em one start at a time.

Nick Martinez, wins versus Brewers: I downgraded Martinez because of the hammy strain he suffered late in camp, but he’s back and pitched decently against the Milwaukee club. He’s not a big strikeout guy and he’s not going to wrack up the innings, but he’s talented and could end up being a guy who follows an opener for four or five innings and wins a bunch of games for the Rays.

Pavin Smith, hits the IL: The discomfort in his elbow has been ongoing and the D-backs decided to shut him down. There’s apparently no visible damage according to an MRI but he’s going to try to rest the inflammation away. The trio of Ildemaro Varga, Tim Tawa, and Carlos Santana will share Smith’s at bats for what could be 10 days and might be longer.

Carlos Estevez, given the boot: Actually, he’s wearing a boot after taking a line drive off his ankle in his disastrous first game of the season. He has thrown better than 96 mph throughout his career but reports of diminished velocity during spring training were followed by him hitting only 91 mph in this year’s debut. He could go on the IL or not, but it will be a surprise if he is put back in the closing mix without his peak velocity. Lucas Erceg and Matt Strahm figure to bear the workload.

Didier Fuentes, sent down by the Braves: The youngster did all that the Atlanta club could have asked for, holding the Royals to one run over four innings, and then they sent him down. That’s because he was going to be on the shelf for a bit and a modern baseball operation tries to minimize resting parts. Fuentes will be back and should be a costly waiver pickup if a team in your league hasn’t already rostered him.

Emerson Hancock, shuts down Guardians: I was all over Hancock last year as a potential breakout arm, but he didn’t miss bats and had a few disastrous games that wrecked his stats. That’s what happens with guys who pitch to a lot of contact, even if they’re talented and keep hitters off balance. Sometimes it works, sometimes it emphatically does not. Against the Guardians Hancock threw more slower but spinnier heaters than he has in the past and threw a new sweeper. It worked, but I’m doubtful the new approach is going to help him achieve the dominance he needs to avoid the occasional blow up. Still, I’m keeping an eye on him.

Life of Bryans, Houston Style: There was joking after it was clear that Josh Hader wasn’t going to be ready to start the season closing games that Bryan Abreu was the obvious replacement, with Bryan King the closer in waiting. A tale of two Bryans. Abreu has struggled early with his control and it’s King who now has a save. Hader is supposedly on schedule to return the last week of April, so one or the other of these Bryans have a chance to save some more games.

MY ADL TEAM

The American Dream League had its zoom auction on Sunday, lasting from 10am to 7pm. The league has keepers and draft inflation of 15-20 percent.

I ended up with:

C: Alejandro Kirk $15
C: Yeiner Diaz $18

1B: Colt Keith $10
3B: Isaac Paredes $12
CI: Nolan Schanuel $10

2B: Brooks Lee $3
SS: Jeremy Pena $22 (keeper)
MI: Isiah Kiner-Falefa $2

OF: Chandler Simpson $10 (keeper)
OF: Brent Rooker $30
OF: Byron Buxton $23
OF: Cody Bellinger $26
OF: Tyler O’Neill $4

UT: Andrew McCutchen $1

P: Kevin Gausman $12 (keeper)
P: Kris Bubic $6 (keeper)
P: Garrett Crochet $36
P: Slade Cecconi $3
P: Chris Martin $3
P: Kirby Yates $3
P: Bryan Baker $1
P: Jacob Latz $2
P: Matt Strahm $3
P: Drew Pomeranz $2

R: Zebby Matthews, Lance McCullers, Tyler Holton, Johan Oviedo, Jacob Melton, Ryan Sloan, Kody Funderburk, Myles Straw.

This is a 4x4 league, so no strikeouts or runs are counting in the standings.

This is a pretty balanced squad, though obviously if Buxton reverts to the injury-prone version he once was there will be ground to make up.

There are a lot of very solid teams coming out of Sunday’s auction and a lot of the year’s outcome is going to turn on injuries and how best we respond to them. I’ve won close races the last two years by 1) lucking into Lawrence Butler on waivers just before he caught fire in 2024, and 2) picking Chandler Simpson with the 12th reserve pick last year.

There is work to be done.

HOUSEKEEPING

I’m turning off payment processing for the Substack tomorrow, meaning there will be no way to pay to gain access to paid member information unless you pay up today.

It also means that paid members shouldn’t have to worry about automatic renewals until next season starts. If you do get renewed please let me know and I’ll charge you back. And feel free to turn off auto renewal anyway, just to be safe.

I’ll be posting the final Master Sheet on Thursday. It will have a hard time handicapping the mess that are so many bullpens right now. Is it really Ryan Stanek in St. Louis? How did I get Matt Svanson so wrong? He had me at SV. I’ll write about that, and let me know if you have any questions.

There will be monthly earnings updates in the offseason for all, as in the past.

And I’m always ready to answer questions, so I may pop up a time or two more in the weeks ahead.

Have a great season! And great drafts if you have any coming up.

Sincerely,

The Master Sheet for paid subscribers is after the paywall! Updated through March 26. Next update: April 2.

The paywall is now.