NEWS OF THE DAY
I was tweaking player projections and prices this morning, mostly minor stuff, when I came across Detroit’s Alex Lange. For the projection, he had a bunch of saves (as he is likely to be the Tigers closer for at least part of this season) but a price of only $2. Wrong!
I fixed him, bumping his price to $10, and decided it was time to add a Changes tab to Rotoman’s Sheet.
This is the place you will find significant changes to either a projection, a price, or a comment. If I just nudge the numbers just a little I’m not going to mention it, but in the case of Lange his price jumped from the wrong $2 to the hopefully more correct $10 and it is well worth mentioning.
PITCHING OUTLIERS
The most notable ADP outlier on my pitching board comes up first. Justin Verlander is pretty consistently going in the fourth round of mixed drafts, even though his past three earnings have been $47, $59, and $47. The fact that sandwiched in between, where the “and” is, are two $0s shouldn’t matter. He’s back and shown he can do it again.
Photo: Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA
I’m happy to pay him $36 as he tries to match last year’s excellence this year. But to be honest, in a 15-team mixed slow draft I’m in right now I chose to take Dylan Cease ahead of Verlander in the third round (40th pick). The reason? Strikeouts. I have Cease throwing 30 more strikeouts than Verlander, which is worth a lot when putting together a one-ace pitching staff.
What Verlander has that Cease doesn’t is a long history of excellence. Any history that long comes with age, so there is reason to worry that Father Time will catch up to him. Still, if he doesn’t get hurt there isn’t a pitcher on this list I have more faith in.
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