RANDOM NOTES
Do you know Brett Wisely? He wasn’t on our list until today, when he’ll probably be sent down by the Giants. He’s a second baseman by virtue of good hands and a gun lacking in shortstop oomph. In Double-A last year he hit 15 homers and stole 31 bases. He’s the type of guy J.D. Bolick used to turn up in his Unheralded column in The Guide. The major league equivalency for Wisely’s 2022 season is 10 homers and 22 steals with a .223 batting average, but he walked more than 12 percent of the time and struck out only 20 percent. Scouts like his bat and approach. He’s not big but that’s a little pop he has, and he’s been playing the outfield in spring training. If a utility spot opens by the bay he might see some action.
I’m not here to talk about my fantasy team, but then again, maybe I am just a little. My AL-only league turns in its keeper lists today. My thoughts today turn to Jorge Mateo, who I reached for last year at $15 and he paid off. I made him an early PAN here but the allure of 20-25 steals even if he plays part-time draws me in. The chance that he’ll be replaced by Gunnar or another of the SS prospects (Joey Ortiz and Jordan Westburg are coming, and Jackson Holliday isn’t far behind them and moving faster than they are) the Orioles have in abundance repels me. My other options are Austin Hays ($14), a better hitter but one without big power or speed who also could stumble into playing time challenges, or keeping a TOPPER on Robbie Ray or Eduardo Rodriguez. Toppers are boring, but keeping Mateo at $15 when he might go (with inflation) for $10 or $12 is worse. I think I’ll throw Mateo back. Even if he goes for $17 or $18 (with inflation) it’s a win for me unless he suddenly shows skills he hasn’t before had.
Isn’t it interesting that the White Sox aren’t putting Liam Hendriks on the 60-day IL? Do they really think he might be back by the end of May? Or do they lack a compelling reason to move someone off their 40-man roster? I’m going to go with the latter, figure Hendriks might be back in July at the earliest, and hope others bet on the hope.
After a solid spring training season it looks like Canaan Smith-Njigba will be playing right field in Pittsburgh when Andrew McCutchen is the DH. Smith-Njigba is not tall but he is big and strong, yet he hasn’t hit that many homers coming up in the minors. He’s a patient hitter limited to corner outfield, so the power better come, but he has some appeal because the Pirates don’t have that many other pieces to replace him with.
The Yankees deal with Franchy Cordero probably relegates Estevan Florial to Triple-A, but it is notable that the deal is a split one (according to mlb.com), meaning the Yanks can stash Cordero in Scranton if he’s not helping. Cordero fits the current Yankees mold as a low-contact but patient power hitter, though more on the low-contact side than patient. He had a strong spring training but the Orioles bailed, well aware he had a strong spring last year followed by a weak regular season.
Christian Pache is a reminder that all top prospect hitters don’t make it. He was traded to the Phillies today after being DFAd by the Athletics. Pache didn’t make it as a hitter but he’s an excellent outfielder. Plus, after years of failure, he’s only 25. I like him as a supersleeper, now in a comfortable offensive environment that could prioritize his dee over Jake Cave’s (supposedly revived beyond recognition) bat.
RULES CHANGES
There’s a story at MLB.com today showing how this year’s rules changes changed this spring training. It’s well worth a look.
It looks like the pitch clock is going to be a profound change. The shift and the size of the bases will probably make a limited difference, and the limited pickoffs will make a noticeable difference that might add a little tension to play.
On the structural side, the balanced schedule should help players on the coasts and hurt players in the central divisions, probably enough to be felt but not so much that it can’t be debated over how much. But I haven’t seen any discussion about the fantasy implications of moving to 26-man rosters, and only 13 of them can be pitchers. In the old days, of course, teams carried 10 pitchers and 15 hitters, but in recent years teams have often carried 13 pitchers and 12 hitters.
That change had an interesting fantasy baseball affect. The same number of at bats were distributed among a decreasing number of players. Here’s a look at the number of plate appearances (labelled incorrectly at bats) in 2022 (blue) versus 2000 (gold).
In 2000 there were a lot fewer hitters getting plate appearances, not surprisingly, but the top guys were getting more than the top guys now and the bench guys were getting far fewer. Also, there were about 2000 more plate appearances in 2022 for some reason. I was expecting a smaller difference.
I’m not sure how this has affected the way we play fantasy baseball, though clearly at the turn of the millennium the spread of hitters was more stars and scrubs than today. And I’m not sure how adding close to 24 more hitters to the major leagues this season will change things, but there should be more dilution.
BDOTY
Zachary writes:
This year the Midwest Rotisserie League had its 30th Annual in-person auction draft.
One year, about 16-20 years ago, we were unable to find a day that worked for all 12 owners from four different states to get together for the 8-hour ordeal. In the days before Zoom, the only solution we could come up with was an overnight draft. So from 11:00 pm to 6:00 am, 12 grown men gathered in the basement of a house in Brookings, South Dakota to fill our rosters for the year.
It was a terrible idea which worked, but well short of working well.
But the other option would have been even worse: a year without fantasy baseball...what a nightmare that would have been!
P.S. Fun fact, one of our former owners is now a member of the U.S. House of Representatives.
P.P.S. I am a Catholic priest, and fittingly my team name is Padres!
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