RANDOM NOTES
Publication note: I said I was sending a valentine for draft weekend, but my very long auctions on Saturday and Sunday, and the allure of family time each night, scotched that plan. But I have not forgotten it.
We’re easing into the busy news cycle when the names on the cut and demoted transaction lists are familiar. Unlike this list from last week:
Klendy Leen? It turns out he’s a 17-year-old international signing out of Venezuela. He’s on my radar now.
Here are some notes about the weekend’s transactions and news:
Jared Triolo wins the second base job in Pittsburgh and Llover Peguero is sent down. Triolo went for a buck in LABR and Tout Wars, but should steal some bases with a not-terrible batting average. I bumped his price up a few dollars.
Ben Joyce was supposed to be a flame-throwing force in the Angels bullpen, but he walked 9 in 7 innings of Spring Training, so he starts the year in the minors.
Last year the Brewers surprisingly added Joey Wiemer to their roster to start the season. This year he’s been sent down, replaced apparently by Blake Perkins, who did not have a better spring than Wiemer. Perkins is better at taking walks than Wiemer, but doesn’t appear to have fantasy value.
The Tigers Matt Manning had a fine spring but did not make the team. That makes him a great reserve pick in leagues that allow you to only draft minor leaguers.
Prelander Berroa was a dark horse for the closer position on the White Sox, partly because he throws hard and also because the other candidates are not imposing. But he was slowed this spring with shoulder aches and has been sent to Triple-A to get more work in.
Mike Moustakas did not make the White Sox. Neither did Kevin Pillar. But then the White Sox turned around and signed Pillar to a major league deal. He should platoon with Dominic Fletcher. Pillar’s is the weak-side of the platoon so he’s not a draft target even in deep leagues, but when he was younger he was often a sneaky add. They have not signed Moustakas again.
The Mariners released Brian Anderson, who did not have a bad camp. He’s scuffled the last few years, in part because of injuries, but he also hasn’t seemed like the versatile defender and fine hitter he looked like when he first came up.
The Phillies traded Jake Cave to the Rockies. This follows the Rockies trading for Greg Jones, a so-far failed prospect, from the Rays last week. Jones has struck out more than 30 percent of his PAs throughout his minor league career, while Cave didn’t start doing that until he made the majors, which doesn’t bode well for Jones, who the Rockies sent down after the trade. Cave, 31, has more than 1200 plate appearances with a .693 OPS, which is not good for an outfielder, though against righties it is a little above .700. Jones can only hope to be so good. Go Rockies.
The Rockies released Bradley Zimmer. A busy week.
The Mets send JD Martinez down to Triple-A to get more work before he’s called up. I picked him up in my Saturday draft for cheap, which is fine, but I worry that an old guy getting a late start is going to struggle at first and is an increased risk of muscle pulls and strains.
The Nationals selected Jesse Winker and Eddie Rosario’s contracts and upgraded them to major league deals while sending down Jacob Young. Winker has had a good spring, though his power is still down, while Young was okay, about what you’d expect from him. Both were PK Sleepers this spring but Young now loses that “status,” even though if he does end up playing he’s going to steal bases. But we’ll need Victor Robles to finally go away to see that happen.
Mark Vientos didn’t make the Mets and was sent to Triple-A. He had the kind of spring you’d expect, with five homers and a .232 batting average. His power is for real, but he’s not a good hitter in any sense that doesn’t involve long flies. He was beat out my DJ Stewart and Tyrone Taylor for the DH slot, both of whom are weak fifth fantasy outfielders in Rotisserie leagues.
The Pirates are leaving Bradenton with prospect Jared Jones in their rotation. You can look at his terrific spring, with a 0.00 ERA in 16 innings, and think the decision was obvious, but I worry about the 9 walks he gave up. Jones’ walk rates didn’t go up as he advanced through the minors, but they weren’t super to begin with. A small bet on Jones is fine, but the risk of failure this year is high.
On that note…
ASK ROTOMAN
Dear Rotoman:
In my 4x4 NL Roto league. I usually go with the strategy of 5 starters and 4 relievers. I started out having strong relievers, with Robert Suarez, Alexis Diaz, and Joel Payamps, and middle tier starters McKenzie Gore and Michael King. So in the endgame I took four $1 starters hoping two or three work out. I got Martin Perez, Ryne Nelson, Jordan Wicks, and Jose Quintana. Which ones should I have the quick hook with and which ones should I stick with for the whole season?
“Fishing Expedition”
Dear Fishing:
First off, playing 4x4 means you don’t have to pile up the innings to compete. So to the extent your rules allow you can rotate pitchers in against bad teams and out against good teams. It stands to reason that a pitcher is going to post better stats against bad teams than against good ones.
Last year, Martin Perez had a 3.77 ERA against <.500 teams, and a 5.19 ERA against teams that were better than .500. Baseball Reference is returning an error on Jose Quintana’s splits page, but I’m sure we’d find something similar.
The thing about streaming is you’ll get it wrong sometimes and it will feel bad, sitting a pitcher as he throws a 7 inning shutout, but the numbers favor being as strict as you can overall.
When it comes to bailing completely, chucking the pitcher overboard, look at the results and the underlying reasons for those results. Pitchers like Perez and Quintana need to get soft-contact in order to survive, because they don’t strike out that many hitters. If they’re giving up homers and loud outs and a lot of hits, maybe something is wrong. You certainly don’t want those stats, so if you can’t stash them you have to bail.
Young guys like Nelson and Wick are a different problem. They can struggle, just like the oldsters, but the symptoms are different. Maybe lots of strikeouts, but lots of walks, too, or lots of homers. But last year Nelson showed that maybe big strikeout numbers aren’t in his major league profile, but so far home runs are. He’s had a nice spring, the Ks are up, but the homers are still coming.
Chase Field has reduced the number of homers hit in recent years, so maybe Nelson will learn to pitch more effectively there. I’m with you on giving him a chance, but unlike Perez and Quintana he hasn’t yet shown that he’s going to get the job done. So, no long leash.
And Jordan Wicks is a similar story. He’s at a good age to have a breakout season, but like Nelson he hasn’t shown that his stuff will dominate at the highest levels. Wrigley Field is good for homers and the parks in Cincinnati and Milwaukee are better. Measured by ERA Wicks had a good camp, but he struck out just 12 hitters in 17.3 innings. He’s far from a sure thing.
The same can be said for MacKenzie Gore and Michael King, with differing provisos, so I think you’re going to be working all season long making this pitching staff work. Maybe things will go your way, Gore and King will be at least somewhat ace-like, and give you some room to miss. But your best bet is work fearlessly to find good arms and good matchups working the stream.
Good luck. And here’s a pertinent bit of wisdom from the internet.
Sincerely,
Rotoman
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