ASK ROTOMAN
Dear St. Peter (like the song):
Looked at your list and know that you have stated the values and number of players should reflect a 24-team league, the values of a combined 12-team AL-only and 12-Team NL-only prices.
When I sort the hitters I see 352 Listed at $2 or more. Another 80 $1 players. I know this is a work in progress but I see too many players at this point. That is: 24 teams multiplied by 14 hitters per team is 336 total hitters so just wondering why the disconnect.
I became curious when I saw 57 shortstops listed. I know some of them have dual or multiple eligibilities but most of the multiples will slot in as 2nd base.
24 SS plus slightly more than half at middle infield (2nd base is weaker), lets say 15 and another 3 at DH means there should be 42.
For Pitchers you have 215 $2+ and another 80 $1 players.
24 x 9 = 216.
“What Gives?”
Dear Gives:
Thanks for the song and the counting.
The song and video are great fun, so bouncy and catchy. The counting brings up something I should have been clearer about from the start.
As you note, these lists are currently in development. They are a work in, I hope, progress, getting more specific as we get more information and get closer to our drafts and the start of the season.
At this point I mostly work on the top of the lists, meaning the $2 and up guys, because they are the likely players to be acquired in 12-team AL and NL-only leagues.
But as I go along I also put $1 bids down on the guys I want to keep track of. These are guys who have showed signs in the past that they might have draft day or reserve list value, or could acquire some this year if things break their way.
As we go along, some of these guys will be bumped up and some $2 guys may be knocked off the list entirely. For me, that’s an ever-evolving process because we just don’t know at this point which of these guys we like most. Or least.
I’d also like to say that at this point and the next point and the point after that, having the conversation about which of these guys to favor is important, but even more important is for you, the reader, to make up his own mind. I’m good, I think, at pointing out potential talents and possible foibles, but the reason these guys have so little value is because nobody likes them. So you should target the ones you decide you like best. You’ll get some right and some wrong, just as I will, but my hope is that our conversation will steer us both in better directions.
Finally, there are the reserve lists. While your counting is right in terms of active rosters, most leagues have reserves. In Tout Wars we take four reserves, an extra 48 players. In my AL-only league we take seven reserves. That’s an extra 84 players. Some leagues have more, some less. Giving players a $1 bid means at this point I’m considering them for the active squad or reserves.
Ss we move closer to the season we’ll slim down.
Thanks for asking,
Ps. A cautionary message.
THE HOTTEST TIER
Two of the top three are 31-year-old stars, uniformly excellent except in 2019, when both slumped as 27 year olds. Welcome Jose Ramirez and Manny Machado.
The third guy is Bobby Witt Jr. I don’t like him at this price ($36), but is ADP is 9.21, which means he’s going to be taken up here, five spots ahead of Machado. His speed and power combo makes him potentially the most valuable of the third basemen (and he qualifies at SS as well), the hot corner version of Julio Rodriguez, but what he’s actually proven so far is that he’s not the hot corner version of Julio Rodriguez. Which is not a knock, just a call to common sense.
By the way, taking him in the first round is a risky play and there are times to make risky plays. If want to go that way feel free, it might work out, but what I see is a guy who hit the ground running last year and played pretty much to his skill set. That makes him a $30 player, a second-round pick with a bit of upside. At $36 and No. 9 he’ll have to get lucky with his batting average to earn more. As I said, it could happen, but I think it’s a bad bet.
As for last week’s question about Rafael Devers and Austin Riley, Riley's latest ADP is 20.50 while Devers' is 20.54. Not a bit of difference between them.
Finally, in the top tier, is Nolan Arenado, who after two years of missing Coors regained his star status in St. Louis. Let’s start off our profiles with his:
Nolan Arenado, Cardinals: After two years with lesser value because of a lower batting average, primarily, his BA bounced back when his BABIP bounced back to his usual range. He increased his launch angle a bit last year and hit more barrels than he had since 2016, so maybe there was a swing adjustment in there, but he otherwise hit the ball as he did in Colorado and got similar results. Expecting a full repeat is probably unrealistic, but at $28 a little fallback is built into the price, which is especially sweet because the falloff after him at third base is fairly significant. MEH
Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pirates: He’s a disappointment. He disappointed me last year, too, but I’m sticking with him. He has a good approach, he makes contact, and he runs. Plus, he hits the ball hard enough to improve his homer game. Yes, his launch angle is too low so far for that, but it wouldn’t take a huge change for him to hit more homers. Will he do it? I don’t know, but I’ll be glad to get him as cheaply as the field is offering him now to find out. PICK
Gunnar Henderson, Orioles: He hit the ball hard after he was promoted to the big club last year, but he hit it overwhelmingly on the ground. That continued a trend from his time in Triple-A last year, which is not a good look for a purported power hitter. That’s something he can change, though that’s not without risk, so I’m a little down on his homer potential this year. As for stolen bases, he ran successfully a modest amount in the minors, but not much in the majors last year. His sprint speed is first-rate, so he might run more this year (which would give a goose to his fantasy value) but hitting in the middle of the order ahead of Santander and Mountcastle might limit his opps. I know, he’s the No. 1 prospect in the world right now, but he’s young enough to be a risk for growing pains. BTW, in OBP leagues I have far fewer reservations. He walks a lot! PAN
Nota bene: If you’re perusing Rotoman’s Sheet and you look at Henderson’s 2022 value you’ll see -$2. How, one might reasonably ask, can someone hit $4 homers in 130 odd plate appearances with a .259 batting average and be a negative? The answer is opportunity cost. Because I scale my prices for the whole year, only 168 hitters and 108 pitchers in each league have positive value. Just like on draft day. This is helpful for valuing full-time players but does give short shrift to those who play a fraction of the year, like Henderson, who earned almost $3 (up from his -$4.50 opportunity cost) in 132 plate appearances. Something to keep in mind when looking at players with limited stints.
Alec Bohm, Phillies: I have him priced like a 9th or 10th rounder and he’s going in the 13th in recent NFBC drafts. Fine by me. He lifted his launch angle last year and cut his strikeout rate, two trends that bode well for a season hitting .300 with 25-30 homers. I’m not saying that’s going to happen this year, but it might. PICK
Max Muncy, Dodgers: In recent drafts he’s been going in the eighth round, which is defensible, but makes him less of a PICK than I had him last week. Still, a PICK, especially in OBP leagues.
Jose Miranda, Twins: He hit enough last year to warrant notice, but there are caveats about ranking him this high. He’s aggressive but only makes decent contact with decent power, which would seem to limit his batting average and power upsides. He’s young and can change that, sure, but he’s also a valueless defender at third base where his hitting bonafides don’t shine quite as much as they do at first. Given a full year at last year’s rates he’ll earn his $18 this year, but there is playing time risk here that makes him a PAN.
Josh Rojas, Diamondbacks: RosterResource has him platooning this year, though his L/R splits are nearly identical in his career. He’s earned $17 and $22 the past two years, but potential playing time limits on top of his competent but unexciting skillset are a good reason to downgrade him a bit. PAN
Matt Chapman, Blue Jays: The last four years he’s cost $22, $22, $20, $16, and he’s earned $17, $10, $10, $15. His NFBC ADP seems to take into acccount his ability to take a walk and his defense, though the real reason for his premium cost is that he ranks eighth among qualifying third basemen in homers over the last three years. Positional weakness gives him points for power, despite his consistently low batting average. Fine in an OBP league, but PAN if you count batting average.
Brandon Drury, Angels: Three of the last three years had been lost ones for Drury, and in the other he hit .218, so it’s easy to see why his breakout last year was so surprising. The big differences were his health and his ability to hit more fly balls. Not surprisingly, that led to more homers. So, the potential some of us saw back in 2016 has finally been realized. Can we count on him being able to continue it? For me, yes. There was nothing flukey about Drury’s performance last year except for his ability to take the field. He earned $23 last year, if he’s going for $15 this year or even $18 he’s a chance I would take. PICK
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Have a great week.
Sincerely,
Finally, one more profile (another Angel):
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