SUNDAY PAPERS
Written Sunday night, and delivered on Monday.
Kodai Senga got a shot of the rich platelet stuff into his shoulder and was told not to throw for three weeks. That gets us to mid-March. If he then starts throwing and begins an extended Spring Training regimen around Opening Day 1 or Opening Day 2, it seems reasonable to hope he’ll be back about the middle of May. But losing a quarter of the season is kind of the best-case scenario. I cut his projection by a third. That’s feeling a tad optimistic, especially when the disaster scenario isn’t out of the question.
Ask not for whom the (Cody) Bellinger toils. He toils for the Cubs. This year at least. In The Guide, I say we should expect a team to overpay for him this year, but then I hedged. Did the Cubs overpay? It seems if Bellinger has another great season he can re-open the contract or become a free agent, and if he doesn’t the Cubs are on the hook. But really, who cares? The details are for scorekeeping, but all power to good players making the most they can of their highly exploitable talents. Bellinger, whose struggles after his brilliant debut were legion, once seemed to be a very good maybe special player.
Max Muncy, the Dodger version, is reportedly in the best condition of his life. Does Sabermetrics track these declarations? He recently signed a contract extension with the Dodgers, so good on him for putting in the effort.
ASK ROTOMAN
Rotoman:
In one of my NL-only that began in 1985 with some of the original guys from fantasy baseball (most are now dead) the cap for the draft is $360. It's the reason I call that NL-only 11 experts (and me). That's the way a lot of leagues went in those days, using $360 as a base. 8 keepers are allowed. I'd like to pick 2 of these 4 mediocrities: Wade Miley is $6. Lance Lynn, Kyle Hendricks, and Jose Quintana are all $10. Which 2 would you lean toward? I know this choice is like bad breath or body odor. Keep me posted if you get the chance and thank you.
“Stinky”
Dear Stinky:
What does Steamer say?
Miley: 139 IP, 8 wins, 103 K, 4.51 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
Lynn: 176 IP, 11 wins, 161 K, 4.33 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Hendricks: 158 IP, 8 wins, 111 K, 4.77 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Quintana: 171 IP, 10, 144 K, 4.23 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
My Big Prices in the Guide, ADP:
Miley: $2, 518
Lynn: $5, 310
Hendricks: $3, 509
Quintana: $1, 480
I don’t quarrel with any of Steamer’s numbers, and the NFBC ADPs confirm that I have Hendricks too high and Quintana too low.
So, change Hendricks to $2, Quintana to $3, hold your nose, and keep Lynn and Quintana. The universal principle is, Follow the Strikeouts!
And bring some Limburger to your auction to share.
Sincerely,
Rotoman
JOHNNY WALKER WISDOM
Here you go. Your 2024 closers. Plus. Not.
It’s actually too early for any Johnny Walker, and definitely too early for any real wisdom about closers. But I’ll try.
We all know what’s going to happen. The top guys, the “secure” choices who will (we think) get saves and strike out hitters, go in the low $20s and high teens. I’d say that’s the Top 15 or so here.
The NFBC thinks I have David Bednar a few clicks too high. Whatever. The Top 3 are clearly the Top 3, if we know anything. Between Bednar, Doval, Hader and Duran, take your pick. The funny thing about closers is that their distribution works like a draft. Each team that takes one of these top guys then doesn’t take another, at whatever price, for a good while.
But notice here the league distribution. Of the Top 15, 10 close in the National League. In an NL-only league, only two teams will be scrambling in the second tier.
In an AL-only the majority of teams are going to be living in the second tier. Not that there is anything wrong with Pete Fairbanks and Kenley Jansen, or Clay Holmes and Alex Lange, but all are a notch or two less reliable and less dominant than the heavy hitters.
Looking at the ADP numbers, what is wrong with Evan Phillips? He’s just overlooked. His manager says he’s the closer. He did a decent job last year and his setup guys, Brusdar Graterol and Joe Kelly, don’t seem terribly threatening.
If you ever played the original Sim City game, one of the nutty aspects was the activation of random disasters, like an earthquake, or Godzilla.
Similarly, two of the most likely players to be traded this spring are Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase and Milwaukee’s Devin Williams. Either of them changing teams would be a random disaster. In both cases, the game’s most reliable and dominant closers would not only change the closer ranks on their former teams but would also likely displace a closer on their new teams. Maybe the wariness about Evan Phillips comes from a belief that the Dodgers will snap one of these two up.
In any case, there will be disruption.
Once everyone has a top or middlin’ closer, roto owners scramble through the bottom of this list trying to pick off the best pieces for their second closer. Can we answer any questions?
Is Carlos Estevez the Angels closer? The Angels say yes. Last year I thought Matt Moore would end up with the job. He was very good, but Estevez held the job all season. Moore is still there this year, but the Halos have also added Robert Stephenson, who looked like a world-beater after he landed in Tampa last summer. But his history is checkered. Estevez has the job until he loses it.
Who is John Brebbia? He is the pathetic White Sox’s putative closer, though last week he was walking back to the mound while throwing batting practice and he pulled his calf. While walking! He now has a walking boot and a scooter to get around, though he says it doesn’t hurt when he throws. He’s been a solid enough relief pitcher when healthy, in St. Louis and San Francisco, though he missed a bunch of time last year with a lat strain. The venerable Jesse Chavez would appear to be next in line if Brebbia starts the season on the IL.
Can we count on Justin Lawrence? He throws hard. Of course, he’s also a little wild, and he’s competing with Tyler Kinley for the gig in Colorado. Daniel Bard, the perpetual Rockies surprise had knee surgery last week, so he’s out of the picture for a little while. It would seem that Jake Bird could get a shot as well, if things are not going well. Do not feel secure with Lawrence.
How do we handicap the co-closer situations in Kansas City and Washington DC? Will Smith’s ADP suggests that James McArthur is not a Royals threat. But I’m under the impression that the lefty Smith has not been the lights-out relief ace he once was. (You can look it up!) So McArthur is a threat. Though touted as co-closers in DC, last year Kyle Finnegan got most of the chances and Hunter Harvey got some. I don’t see a reason why that would change, though, of course, it could.
Do Jose LeClerc and David Robertson get along? I have no idea. Their manager, Bruce Bochy, says either of them could close at any time. Both of them are capable enough so they better make nice.
SELLING OUT
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024, softcover book edition ($19.99), and Kindle edition ($9.99), are available at Amazon.
The PDF version ($12) is available by clicking here
HOUSEKEEPING
After the signature, below, you’ll find behind the paywall links to the Position X Position lists, which are seeing small adjustments as I go through them. Actually, there are huge changes in the relief pitchers list today
You will also find a link to the Excel spreadsheet with projections, prices, and position stuff. I’m fine-tuning things, so no update yet, but it’s coming this week.
When Will I See You Again Dept.: Historical Top 20s by Position tomorrow, along with the Setup guys.
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See you tomorrow!
Sincerely,
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