A Big Box of Expert League Prices

National League Players to Think About

ASK ROTOMAN: Targets

Hi Peter.

I have some free time and joined an NFBC 12 teamer mixed. First time. I was curious.

The league has 23 positions and a seven-man bench and FAAB. No trading.

I set category team goals in my home keeper leagues with my own formula based on prior years results, which takes into account league average and how close the category leaders were to second place in each category. It seems to work well on Draft Day, as I typically come out with a good team on paper.

For NFBC, when I dig into it, 80th percentile comes up in research. I hope to contend.

Any quick thoughts on annual seasonal targets? Finishing 3^rd or 4^th in each category is my typical goal in home leagues. The team will have more stars than I am used to. Standard stats.

· Runs

· Home Runs

· Runs Batted In

· Stolen Bases

· Batting Average

· Strikeouts

· Wins

· Saves

· Earned Run Average

· WHIP

“I Am Curious, Targets”

Dear Curious,

First off, let’s get something big out of the way. I don’t see the point in targets.

Here’s why.

Your goal in the draft/auction is acquire as many stats as possible. You want more, more, more! Except, of course, when it comes to earned runs, empty at bats, and bases on balls. So, what good are targets?

Actually, I can see two uses. One is to draft a balanced team. If you know you need 200 homers and 150 steals, if you’re approaching 200 homers projected and only have 100 projected steals your targets will direct you to go after steals in your future picks. That’s a little useful, especially in a league, like the NFBC, that doesn’t allow trading.

The other is in season. If you know your team is supposed to have 200 homers and half way through you only have 75, your target is going to tell you to step it up! Of course, your place in the standings is going to tell you that, too.

Which is why I don’t see the point in targets.

There are some things I can tell you about NFBC games and their rules:

Individual leagues have small prizes, which are helpful, but the goal of winning your 12-team league is different than the goal of winning the larger tournament, which has a bigger prize.

In a large tournament you must compete in all 10 categories. The winner is going to be someone who put together good scores in all of them.

And NFBC players know that you need to have great pitching qualitatives and lots of wins. Your first reflexive thought might be that excellent ERA and WHIP come with lots of wins, but that’s wrong. The best way to excellent qualitatives is to limit innings, which usually hurts win totals. Unless you pile up excellent innings, which is why the best starting pitchers go very early in NFBC leagues, your win totals are likely to flag.

On the hitting side, in a shallow league, there is no dependable way to pile up the at bats, the way you can in an AL or NL only league. Still, you need to score high in RBI and Runs, which means taking players who bat in the top half of the lineup on high-scoring teams. And avoid the guys with good homer and/or stolen base numbers who don’t get the full complement of at bats because they platoon.

Of course, you will still need to get homers and steals and saves, and ideally a good batting average, but those categories can be addressed in season if you start with a fair number out of your draft/auction. I’m not telling you how many, no targets here, but plainly you want more, more, more.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

Ps. Another issue in NFBC leagues is there is no Injured List. Your seven reserve list slots will be used by your IL players. And while seven sounds like a lot, with so many injuries in the modern game you are likely to be challenged at some point and have to decide which injured player to let go. Which is a good reason to avoid hurt or injury prone players to the extent you can. I’m not saying don’t draft Ronald Acuna if the price is right, but even though it’s a shallow league and you should find a decent replacement until he returns (in May), burning that reserve slot for the first 4-6 weeks might exact another cost. Just something to be aware of.

EXPERT LEAGUES IN THE MASTER SHEETS

Hi Rotoman!

Will you be adding the LABR and Tout Wars $ values to the master sheets?

“Value Added”

Dear VA:

Consider it done, for CBS and LABR, so far. Tout is coming after the AL and NL leagues auction on March 15th and 16th respectively.

This way all subscribers, both so-called annual and monthly, have access.

So-called annual subscribers can also have access to the big spreadsheet over at Pattonandco.com, if they ask. First, sign up for free at Pattonandco.com. Then send me a note asking for Pattonandco.com.

The spreadsheet over at Patton’s has, in addition to the data in the Master Sheets here, Alex’s 4x4 Bid Prices, the prospect rankings from Rotowire, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and Keith Law, and Alex’s player earnings from 2022 to 2024.

Alex’s sheet also has live formulas, so if you change the projection the value of the projection changes in the outer edge of the sheet.

There is a lot of overlap, too. Those are my projections in both sheets, and my 5x5 prices. Which is why we charge one price for both, no matter which side you pay on.

Thanks for buying.

National League Expert Prices and My Bids: A Closer Look

On Wednesday, we looked at some of the players whose prices in the CBS and LABR leagues differed from mine, and why. Scott S., a reader, was a participant in the CBS draft and had some comments that might be of interest. I don’t agree with them all, but different opinions help test our own.

Brent Rooker - He should have been nominated by the 4th round, but didn't come out until at least 8 rounds after that. That hurt his price, as did clogging the DH slot.

Jordan Westburg - I bought him for $25 and here is why. 2B is the AL's weakest position, IMO, and I was determined to get a good one. The previous player was Semien. I had him for $19 when the gong sounded, but someone complained that he was trying to bid $20, so the Commish took him away from me and let the fellow go $20. Someone else went $21 - it wasn't me - and that is what he sold for. So I was slightly annoyed when Westburg was next, and still determined to get my second baseman. Also, I would disagree on your categorization of Westburg as a utility type prospect - he was always put forth as an above-average regular, and that is what he played like in 2024. Keep in mind that he missed a significant portion of the 2H last year due to a fluke injury and still earned $18 in 4x4. I have him projected for $28 this year, and he is eligible at two positions, which is worth an extra buck in my book, so I gladly paid $25. AL LABR would seem to concur. (Rotoman says, some scouts had him as a major league regular, some as more of a part timer. I can’t say he won’t be a full-time player this year, but his aggressive approach and a 22 percent strikeout rate concern me. A guy who walks so little should make more contact. He did hit the ball hard last year, you have to like that, but I’m not paying him this year like he’s a sure thing.)

Gleyber Torres - anyone who owned him last year was quite underwhelmed. I know he has done better in the past, but the move to Detroit isn't going to help him. I don't see him as a $25 player anymore, projecting him for $18 this year.

Lawrence Butler - Don't hot streaks count as much as cold ones? He earned $24 last year in 4x4, in only 450 plate appearances. I like him this year on an improving A's team, especially in what could be a hitter-friendly home park. (Rotoman says, yes, hot streaks count as much as cold ones, but when they happen matters, too. In July Butler was on everything. He had no infield fly balls. His HR/FB rate was 32 percent, and he hit more than 43 percent fly balls. He only struck out 19 percent of the time, as opposed to 30 percent before. In September he slipped back, hitting many more grounders, striking out more, and less than 10 percent of his fly balls left the yard. Maybe the hot streak is as representative of his game as his colder streak afterwards, but I think of athletic and strong guys like Aristides Aquino in 2019, who started his career off with an atypical bang (11 homers in 63 plate appearances), but who whimpered out after pitchers figured out how to make him whiff. I’m not saying it’s a sure thing for that to happen to Butler, but the possibility is there. And thanks for mentioning the Athletics 2025 ballpark in Sacramento! Much less foul ground will help hitters.)

Esteury Ruiz - the A's just don't like this guy. He has huge SB potential, but from a real-baseball standpoint, he just isn't that good. He's worth a flyer, but does not appear to be in the A's plans, so I don't see him getting as many ABs as you do.

Okay, thanks Scott! And on to the National Leaguers:

Hitters

Kyle Tucker, OF Cubs: I’m a few ticks higher than the leagues, and some of that might be outsized enthusiasm. But, dang it, he walked more than he struck out last year! I’m jazzed.

Freddie Freeman, 1B Dodgers: Bigger discounts from the leagues, which given his age are welcome. It looks like I would start out with Tucker and Freeman. I’m okay with that.

Nico Hoerner, SS Cubs: He’s being discounted because he’s coming back from surgery to repair his flexor tendon and hasn’t started playing yet. Some discount is warranted, but he’s expected to be back early in April. I think that makes for a buying opportunity.

Will Smith, C Dodgers: I’m saying $20, they’re saying $15/16. Not a huge difference. He’s coming off an off year and he’s 30 this year. You still want him, so take the discount.

Brandon Nimmo, OF Mets: He is always discounted and he usually earns a profit. This year he’s dealing with a sore knee, so the leagues are a little skittish. He’s supposed to be ready for Opening Day.

Matt Chapman, 3B Giants: I’m alway more sour on Chapman than others, and from 2020 to 2023 I was right. Last year I was wrong, but I’m not changing my ways.

Michael Busch, 1B Cubs: Was it the signing of Justin Turner that’s scared off the leagues from Busch? Busch wasn’t going to see many at bats against lefties anyway, so I don’t see how that changes anything.

Noelvi Marte, 3B Reds: Okay, here’s a real correction. I had not adjusted Marte’s price after the trade for Gavin Lux. Now I have. Marte may well not start the year with the Reds. It’s funny, it looked to me like his bat would play but the glove might be a problem. But it’s the other way around.

Bryan De La Cruz, OF Braves: I had him down for 450 at bats, which could only dhave happened with injuries. Not that those don’t happen, but right now we’re looking at a regular on the short side of the platoon until Ronald Acuna returns, and then what? Somehow, he’ll get 225 at bats. I stand corrected.

Randall Grichuk, OF Diamondbacks: I had him down as a part-time player with a little power and a not-bad batting average. The leagues took him on reserve. The Diamondbacks signed him to a $5M contract, they have some plans for him. He earned $12 last year, and is a steal if he’s a dollar or two in an NL only league.

Jared Kelenic, OF Braves: De La Cruz’s platoon partner early in the year, it is hard to see how either gets many at bats because Marcel Ozuna clogs the DH spot. So, rightfully discounted.

JD Martinez, DH Free Agent: He hasn’t found a job and given his weak 2024 stats and advancing age he can’t be assumed to find one.

Alex Verdugo, OF Free Agent: He was so joyful during the playoffs last year, it’s hard to believe a team isn’t willing to take a chance on him, but it’s easy to see that he’s not figured out how to hit like a full-time outfielder. I’m not changing my price, but don’t pay that unless he signs.

Connor Norby, 3B Marlins: I still don’t think that Norby has the mix of offensive and defensive skills that’s going work in a competitive situation, but the Marlins are not a competitive team. So Norby is going to get the at bats and will hit some homers, and is worth more this year than my original pessimistic bid.

Pitchers

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP Dodgers: In a world going crazy for the always injured Jacob deGrom, I don’t understand why Yamamoto is going more cheaply. He showed last year when he was healthy that he’s an ace in the major leagues. He’s not going wickedly cheap, but cheap enough to take notice.

Shohei Ohtani, SP Dodgers: CBS and LABR both play with one Ohtani, who can be either a DH or a pitcher in any given week. I don’t understand the appeal of that rule at all, since it robs him of his quintessential two-wayness. Whatevs. Tout Wars NL, coming up March 16th, uses the superior two-Ohtani rule, and we’ll then be able to find out what Ohtani the pitcher is worth.

Robert Suarez, RP Padres: The leagues are treating him like a trusted closer, which he partly earned last year by staying healthy. But so much of his brand is not staying healthy it seems unduly risky to offer him full pay ahead of time.

Spencer Strider, SP Braves: Players in the leagues spent $15/17 on Strider, coming back from TJ in May maybe. Understandable, but that is a nearly full valuation for a guy 13 months after TJ. The brace procedure is supposed to get them back quicker, so maybe that works out, but I’m being a little more cautious. All that means is that he won’t be on my team.

Sandy Alcantara, SP Marlins: In a similar situation to Strider, but with a longer time since surgery. But same thing. I would roster him, easy, at a good price, but paying $14/18 at the expert leagues did, especially LABR’s $18, can bite back fast. Even if there’s a chance it might pay off, which there is.

Robbie Ray, SP Giants: He’s getting a little play and went for $14 in CBS (too much) and $9 in LABR (fine). I have him at $7, which is fine, too. He’s thrown five spring training innings, struck out eight, and walked none after a slow start because of a hammy strain. Nice, but meaningless. More meaningful, I hear the velocity is there. I think I’ll make him $8. If he keeps it up he’ll go higher.

Seth Halvorsen, RP Rockies: He’s not the closer yet, so I have a $6 bid on him, but he looks to me to be a notch better than Tyler Kinley and Victor Vodnik, with whom he’s apparently in competition. You may be able to get him more cheaply than my $6 bid, but you should grab him before the reserves, where he went at LABR.

Tyler Kinsley, RP Rockies: He’s in the same boat, taken on reserve in LABR.

Jared Jones, SP Pirates: I’ve written about my wariness on Jones before. I have him at $7, while the leagues went $13/17. I’ve also read listicles touting him as a breakout pitcher this year, which is certainly possible. He has a 108 Stuff+ rating at 23 years old. When Tarik Skubal was 23 his Stuff+ was 104. So Jones could break big. The talent is there, the pitches are there, but while Stuff+ happens, so does other stuff. Skubal didn’t become a force until after returning from injury at 25. My feeling is we don’t know enough about Jones’ ability to keep fly balls in the park to push his price high. But if you disagree, go ahead. The talent is there, and I could be wrong.

Clay Holmes, SP Mets: The pitches are there for him to be a starter, but can he make the transition seamlessly? Others have, but many others have struggled. I have him at $6, the leagues put him at $9/12. They’re not crazy, but I don’t want that risk at that price.

MacKenzie Gore, SP Nationals: He earned $3 last year, and could break out this year, or might not for another year. I’ll pay $6 and acknowledge that the $11 he cost in LABR could work out.

Justin Verlander, SP Giants: I’m under the leagues and staying there.

FOR SALE

Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide A-Z 2025 is out, as you may have heard, and has nearly 300 Picks and Pans from other fantasy experts, some who play in the CBS and LABR leagues. You can buy it now!

Buy the softcover book from IngramSpark by clicking here. It’s $19.99. Order it online by clicking the link and be emboldened to bypass the Amazon monster.

Buy the softcover book ($20) or Kindle book ($10) from Amazon by clicking here. The contents are like the black+white pages of the old Professional Edition, with hundreds of profiles, projections, and bid prices by me, Rotoman. Organized alphabetically, to make it easier to look up players by name, all season long. And with nearly 300 comments from fantasy experts like Mike Gianella, Scott Pianowski, Vlad Sedler, Doug Dennis, Phil Hertz, Dave Adler, and injury notes from legend Rick Wilton.

The Kindle version is also available for free for Kindle Unlimited subscribers. Download it to your tablet or computer with Kindle software, it doesn’t work on the smaller readers because of the formatting, but you can scroll through as often as you like for no cost.

Buy the PDF file by clicking here. All the content with little of the carbon. It is $12 and available immediately via a link on the confirmation page.

HOUSEKEEPING

I encourage your comments, suggestions, and questions. I’ve been looking at depth chart issues and position battles, but it would be great if you clued me in to those that interest you. We’ll go over those next week.

If you see a mistake, please say something so I can fix it. There is now a corrections and changes page, which lists the significant changes I’ve made to the Master Sheets.

If you aren’t yet a subscriber please consider joining. You can get all access to the data files and special subscriber content for one month for $7. I’ll be turning off renewals for monthly subscriptions March 20th, so you don’t even have to cancel.

The Master Sheets are up for paid subscribers and there is a link after the signature below.

Sincerely,

Thanks for reading. The Master Sheets are after the paywall, now, with a more complete update available later tomorrow.